World Trade Organization: AI Could Boost Global Trade by ~40% by 2040

Artificial intelligence could fundamentally transform global commerce over the next 15 years, with the World Trade Organization projecting that AI could boost the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040 thanks to productivity gains and lower trade costs.

"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven."

— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General

The 2025 World Trade Report, launched in Geneva today, identifies AI as one of the few bright spots in an increasingly complex global trading environment. However, the organization warns that without proper policies to bridge the digital divide and invest in workforce skills, AI could exacerbate economic inequalities rather than reducing them.

Transformative Economic Impact Projections

According to WTO simulations, AI could increase exports of goods and services by nearly 40% above current trends, with global trade projected to rise by 34-37% under various scenarios based on different degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle- and high-income economies. Global GDP could meanwhile see a 12-13% increase across different scenarios.

The WTO report identifies several key pathways through which AI transforms international trade. Lower trade costs and enhanced productivity serve as the primary drivers of this transformation, reshaping everything from logistics and compliance to service delivery and market access.

Digital Services Revolution

AI's most significant impact will be seen in the digital services industry. The report notes that AI can transform patterns of trade in services, particularly digitally delivered services, which are projected to see cumulative growth of nearly 18 percentage points in an optimistic scenario of universal AI adoption and high productivity growth.

AI-Enabling Goods Trade Surge

The WTO estimates that global trade in AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors, raw materials, and intermediate inputs, totaled $2.3 trillion in 2023. These essential components for AI development represent a massive and growing segment of international trade, highlighting the interconnected nature of global AI development.

While AI offers tremendous potential, the benefits may not be equally distributed. The WTO warns that without proactive policy responses and greater international cooperation, AI could deepen inequalities rather than reducing them, particularly affecting lower-income economies.

"The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in education, skills, retraining and social safety nets during these past three or four decades of globalization. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI."

— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General

Essential Policy Requirements for Inclusive Growth

The report emphasizes that realizing AI's potential requires comprehensive policy frameworks. Digital infrastructure, technology access, and skilled workforce capabilities are currently concentrated in a few high-income countries, making targeted investments in education and training essential to prevent AI from widening existing inequalities.

Despite AI's potential benefits, countries are increasingly restricting trade in AI-related goods. The WTO found that quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods have climbed sharply over time, from just 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven primarily by high- and upper middle-income economies.

Tariff Barriers Impede AI Access

Access to AI-enabling goods remains highly uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45% in some low-income economies. These high tariffs on essential components like semiconductors and other AI-related technologies create significant barriers to AI adoption in developing countries.

"With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all."

— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General

WTO's Role in Inclusive AI Development

The report emphasizes the WTO's role in helping deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits. The organization provides a forum for WTO members to discuss AI-related trade measures, with 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO focusing on AI. Dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade have also taken place in the context of the Work Programme on E-Commerce.

The WTO identifies AI as one of the few bright spots in what Director-General Okonjo-Iweala describes as "the worst disruptions the global trading system has experienced in 80 years." The global trading system has been increasingly upended by rising protectionism, with the United States and other major economies implementing high tariffs on trading partners.

Transforming Production and Services

AI's impact extends far beyond cost reductions to fundamental changes in how goods and services are produced and traded. The technology is reshaping comparative advantages, enabling new forms of service delivery, and creating entirely new categories of tradeable products and services.

Managing Labor Market Transitions

The report acknowledges that AI could significantly disrupt labor markets, transforming some jobs while displacing others. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that managing these shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets.

Path Forward: Making AI Work for All

The WTO's vision is clear: with the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. This requires coordinated international effort to ensure predictable trade supported by WTO rules, lower tariffs on AI-essential materials, and policies that bridge digital divides while supporting workforce transitions. The organization commits to supporting this effort through continued dialogue and policy coordination among member nations.